The Latest Risk for Stocks

Inflated balloon surrounded by deflated balloons

Equities continue to grind out new record highs, leaving U.S. stocks expensive relative to both history and other countries. Many investors believe the high valuations are justified given still historically low interest rates and inflation. Unfortunately, the regime may be changing in a way that would be less friendly to elevated equity multiples. One dimension of that change is inflation.

Headline inflation has been rising as oil prices have rebounded. The consumer price index (CPI) is now running at 1.60% year-over-year, double the level in July. This is important for market multiples, which historically have been higher when inflation is lower.

Going back to 1954, the level of the CPI has explained approximately 35% of the variation in the S&P 500’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). While the relationship has tended to be less linear with inflation at very low levels, as is the case today, there is another dimension of this relationship that is worth watching: the volatility of inflation.

The relationship between equity multiples and inflation

In the past, equity multiples have been highest when inflation is not only low but stable. Historically, the five-year trailing standard deviation—a measure of volatility—of CPI has explained roughly 30% of the variation in market multiples. The relationship between inflation volatility and multiples holds up even after accounting for the level of inflation. In fact, a model that accounts for both the level and volatility of inflation has explained roughly 60% of the variation in market multiples.

These relationships are important because today inflation is rising and becoming less stable at a time when stocks are particularly expensive. The S&P 500 trades at approximately 20.5x trailing earnings, putting multiples in the top quintile (20%) of all observations going back to the 1950s. Put differently, over the past 62 years the market has only been more expensive roughly 16% of the time. Looking at a longer-term metric, the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, markets are even more expensive. Based on this metric, which uses longer-term earnings, the market has only been this expensive during the tech bubble or right before the 2008 crash.

cyclically-adjusted-pe

In short, today’s valuations are still supported by low inflation and relatively low rates, but that regime may be shifting. Even if inflation remains low by historical standards, should it start to become unmoored, that would remove another prop supporting equity market valuations. For investors, this suggests two strategies.

First, don’t abandon international diversification. Markets are cheaper outside of the U.S. Second, emphasize more of a bottom-up approach, emphasizing those parts of the U.S. market, notably cyclical companies and health care, where multiples are less stretched.

Russ Koesterich, CFA, is Head of Asset Allocation for BlackRock’s Global Allocation team and is a regular contributor to The Blog.

 

Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only.You cannot invest directly in an index.

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of December 2016 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

BlackRock makes no representations or warranties regarding the advisability of investing in any product or service offered by CircleBlack. BlackRock has no obligation or liability in connection with the operation, marketing, trading or sale of any product or service offered by CircleBlack.

©2016 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.