2016 has not been a stellar year for many markets, outside of gold. Indeed, a standard, plain vanilla, domestically oriented 60/40 blend of U.S. stocks and Treasury bonds has produced reasonably good returns. This, in turn, reinforces a nagging question: Is international investing still worth it?
After all, emerging market (EM) equities have trailed for most of the past five years, outperformance by Europe has been episodic, and despite some good years, Japan is once again frustrating investors. Given the risks, why bother?
But don’t be so quick to abandon investing outside the United States. Here are four reasons to consider why you should not throw in the towel on your overseas investments.
1. The U.S. may be safer, but at a cost.
The S&P 500 is currently trading at roughly 19.5x trailing earnings, the top quartile of historical observations, according to Bloomberg data. The good news is that this is still below the level associated with most recent market peaks (2008 was an exception). However, while not necessarily indicative of a market top, current levels have historically been associated with lower future returns. Longer-term valuation measures—notably cyclically adjusted earnings (CAPE)—are even more elevated and suggest low- to mid-single digit returns over the next five years. In contrast, most major markets outside the United States are trading at valuations at or below their historical average.
2. EM is actually outperforming.
Emerging markets have started to recover, with stocks up roughly 6% in local currencies and more than 7% after adjusting for the rebound in EM currencies against the U.S. dollar, according to Bloomberg data. Although these stocks have started to stabilize, valuations still appear inexpensive, particularly on a relative basis. The MSCI EM equity index is trading at roughly 1.35x book value, more than 50% cheaper than the S&P 500, as Bloomberg data shows.
3. International investing is not just about stocks.
While U.S. stocks have led other developed equity markets this year, some of the best performing bond markets have been outside the United States. For example, emerging market debt is up over 10% year-to-date (Bloomberg data). With interest rates in the United States at record lows and rates in other developed markets increasingly in negative territory, investors may want to look beyond traditional markets in search of yield.
4. In a real bear market, U.S. stocks are not necessarily the safest place to hide.
If you’re really worried about a bear market, U.S. equities are still likely to suffer. Yes, given relatively high profitability and the dollar’s safe haven status, U.S. markets could probably hold up better than other stock markets, but not necessarily better than other asset classes. Investment grade bonds, preferred stocks or bank loans offer reasonable returns with arguably less volatility, in my opinion.
The lesson is not to abandon the United States. The domestic stock market still offers investors several desirable characteristics: a stable currency, high profit margins and world class companies. That said, it also comes with a high price tag. For long-term investors, this suggests looking beyond the comforts of home.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal. International investing involves special risks including, but not limited to political instability, currency fluctuations, illiquidity and volatility. These risks may be heightened for investments in emerging markets.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of July 2016 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader.
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